California invested heavily in solar power

Source:
California invested heavily in solar power. Now there's so much that other states are sometimes paid to take it
By IVAN PENN

JUNE 22, 2017

Not long ago, solar was barely a rounding error for California’s energy producers.
In 2010, power plants in the state generated just over 15% of their electricity production from renewable sources. But that was mostly wind and geothermal power, with only a scant 0.5% from solar. Now that overall amount has grown to 27%, with solar power accounting for 10%, or most of the increase. The solar figure doesn’t include the hundreds of thousands of rooftop solar systems that produce an additional 4 percentage points, a share that is ever growing.
Behind the rapid expansion of solar power: its plummeting price, which makes it highly competitive with other electricity sources. In part that stems from subsidies, but much of the decline comes from the sharp drop in the cost of making solar panels and their increased efficiency in converting sunlight into electricity.
The average cost of solar power for residential, commercial and utility-scale projects declined 73% between 2010 and 2016. Solar electricity now costs 5 to 6 cents per kilowatt-hour — the amount needed to light a 100-watt bulb for 10 hours — to produce, or about the same as electricity produced by a natural gas plant and half the cost of a nuclear facility, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Was the fall of Rome a biological phenomenon?

Source: http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-harper-pandemics-rome-20171015-story.html

An interesting article from LA Times
The most devastating enemy the Romans ever faced was Yersinia pestis, the bacterium that causes bubonic plague and that has been the agent of three historic pandemics, including the medieval Black Death. The first pandemic interrupted a remarkable renaissance of Roman power under the energetic leadership of the emperor Justinian. In the course of three years, this disease snaked its way across the empire and carried off perhaps 30 million souls. The career of the disease in the capital is vividly described by contemporaries, who believed they were witnessing the apocalyptic “wine-press of God’s wrath,” in the form of the huge military towers filled with piles of purulent corpses. The Roman renaissance was stopped dead in its tracks; state failure and economic stagnation ensued, from which the Romans never recovered.

Recently the actual DNA of Yersinia pestis has been recovered from multiple victims of the Roman pandemic. And the lessons are profound.

In the first place, the biological agent of the great plague was a relatively young species. Y. pestis was not a germ that had existed for hundreds of thousands of years. To use our contemporary terminology, when it struck the Roman Empire it was an “emerging infectious disease.” As old germs evolve new molecular tools, or entirely new germs arrive on the scene, the results can be tremendously destabilizing — a reminder to modern societies that we must do more than keep track of known threats.

Second, the Roman pandemic was no parochial affair. The closest known relatives of the strain that caused the Roman outbreak have been found in western China. This fact is consistent with the detail provided by ancient sources that the pandemic erupted on the coast of Egypt, at an entrepôt of the bustling Red Sea trade. The deadly package was ferried into the empire across the vast Indian Ocean trade network that brought silk and spices to Roman shores. The plague was, then, an unintended side effect of incipient globalization.

Tourism and Traffic

when you try to see 20 years ahead, always useful to look at China today.
While Delhi and Mumbai are hosts to 4.5 million international travellers each, there are 7 7 Chinese cities in the top 100, and 35 Asian Cities figure in the top 100 destinations.
Mark the growth rates for Indian destinations. Agra (28%), Jaipur (21%), Chennai (10%) and Kolkata (11%) also figure in the top 100 and have explosive growth rates.
These are the highest growth rates among the top 100 cities

http://blog.euromonitor.com/2016/01/top-100-city-destinations-ranking-2016.html

The economics of Richard Thaler

Thaler along with his pioneering colleagues showed that the mistakes that people made—contrary to what mainstream economists believed—were not random. Instead, some such mistakes were predictable and led to systemic society-wide issues, which could be corrected by correcting incentives, or “nudging” people to slightly modify their behaviour.

Thaler’s dissertation supervisor, the renowned economist Sherwin Rosen, despite co-authoring the 1976 paper with him, was not quite impressed with the young economist, later telling The New York Times, “We did not expect much of him.”

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/1e2il20Q3vNEAsMVKK2WnO/The-economics-of-Richard-Thaler.html

The Making of Richard Thaler’s Economics Nobel

In the world of mainstream American economics, Richard Thaler’s study of behavioral quirks like loss aversion and the status-quo bias was seen as subversive.

Kahneman isn’t the only one celebrating. Many economists believe that Thaler’s award was long overdue. The Nobel announcement credited Thaler, whose work has explored mental quirks such as loss aversion and the status-quo bias, for building “a bridge between the economic and psychological analyses of individual decision-making.” That’s true. But Thaler’s greatest achievement may have been in persuading economists—a notoriously hidebound lot—to question the “rational economic man” assumption that they once held so dear. These days, most decent universities offer classes in behavioral economics, and some of the top schools in the U.S., such as Harvard and Berkeley, have made major commitments to the field. Meanwhile, governments around the world, and multinational institutions such as the World Bank, look to behavioral economics to inform policymaking.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/the-making-of-richard-thalers-economics-nobel

Socialism with a spine: the only 21st century alternative

A good read.

Soft neoliberalism has exhausted its appeal. The best progressive alternative is an explicit embrace of socialism
by John Quiggin

there’s no detectable enthusiasm for a centrally planned economy like that of the former Soviet Union or Mao’s China. Communism is a distant and discredited memory, even for those old enough to recall the days when it seemed like a possible alternative.
As it is used today, the term socialism does not reflect a well-worked ideology. Rather it conveys an attitude that could be described as “unapologetic social democracy” or, in the US context, “liberalism with a spine”. It’s expressed in support for proposals that break with the cautious incrementalism of the past, and are in some cases frankly utopian: universal basic income, free post-school education, large increases in minimum wages, and so on.
The combination of a job guarantee and a universal basic income would free workers from dependence on employers. But this would only be feasible if society could ensure adequate production of crucial goods and services, without dependence on the wishes of big business.
The first step in this regard is to revive a term that was widely used and is still relevant to describe the economy of the mid-20th century: the mixed economy. This phrase refers to an economy with major roles for both public and market provision of goods and services. Typically, the public sector provided infrastructure such as electricity, water and road networks, and human services such as health and education. Most of our existing assets in these fields were built up under public ownership. The market sector provided consumer goods, and the wholesale and retail trade networks needed to distribute them, along with a wide range of services.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/oct/09/socialism-with-a-spine-the-only-21st-century-alternative

The dynamics of shale

The dynamics of shale

Andrew Harwood, research director (Asia upstream) at global consultancy group Wood Mackenzie, says that cost reductions and productivity improvements since 2014 mean that today only 20% of US tight oil potential production needs prices higher than $60/barrel to break even. “The majority of current shale oil production breaks even at prices below $60/bbl— this is why we have seen so much growth in US production since the start of 2017,” says Harwood




http://www.livemint.com/Money/RyhA0PnY2GLLuiqG3CeUYO/The-dynamics-of-shale.html

The science of spying: how the CIA secretly recruits academics

In order to tempt nuclear scientists from countries such as Iran or North Korea to defect, US spy agencies routinely send agents to academic conferences – or even host their own fake ones. By Daniel Golden

“Recruitment is a long process of seduction,” says Mark Galeotti, senior researcher at the Institute of International Relations Prague and former special advisor to the British foreign office. “The first stage is to arrange to be at the same workshop as a target. Even if you just exchange banalities, the next time you can say, ‘Did I see you in Istanbul?’”

More than any other academic arena, conferences lend themselves to espionage. Assisted by globalisation, these social and intellectual rituals have become ubiquitous. Like stops on the world golf or tennis circuits, they sprout up wherever the climate is favourable, and draw a jet-setting crowd. What they lack in prize money, they make up for in prestige. Although researchers chat electronically all the time, virtual meetings are no substitute for getting together with peers, networking for jobs, checking out the latest gadgets and delivering papers that will later be published in volumes of conference proceedings. “The attraction of the conference circuit,” English novelist David Lodge wrote in Small World, his 1984 send-up of academic life, is that “it’s a way of converting work into play, combining professionalism with tourism, and all at someone else’s expense. Write a paper and see the world!”

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/oct/10/the-science-of-spying-how-the-cia-secretly-recruits-academics?CMP=fb_gu

Politicians will step in whenever they sense an opportunity

Metros are major capital assets of cities. Urban Metro Projects have proven to be very useful in decongesting large cities.
The metro system is currently operational in 7 cities across India. Delhi is leading with 213 kms of operational length and the construction for another 140 kms is in progress. Kolkata is the oldest system in India, whereas Chennai is the latest entrant in the league of Metro System in India. Gurgaon is the first metro project under Public-Private Partnership mode.
Delhi is the cheapest. Yet if you believe the grandstanding CM of Delhi, it is supposedly too expensive

http://www.india.uitp.org/articles/metro-system-in-india-fare-comparison





Kolkata Metro is the cheapest with a maximum fare of Rs. 25. In Delhi, a distance of 9-12 km costs only Rs. 16. Even a distance greater than 44 km will cost a person taking the Delhi Metro only Rs.30 for a one-way ride. Jaipur Metro, which began operations this month, has an introductory fare for the first six months. The highest fare is just Rs. 15.


http://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/chennai/chennai-metro-is-the-costliest-in-india/article7370018.ece

The House of Saud bows to the House of Putin

It may be too early to identify the Saudi pivot to Russia as the shift of the century. It is though a certified game-changer. Moscow is about to become the new sheriff in town, in virtually any town across Southwest Asia. And it’s getting there on its own terms, without resorting to a Colt dialectic. MBS wants energy/defense cooperation? He gets it. MBS wants less Russian cooperation with Iran? He doesn’t get it. OPEC aims at higher oil prices? Done. And what about the S-400s? Free – sort of – for all.


What concerns Moscow, deeply, is Saudi (formal or informal) financing of Salafi-jihadi outfits inside Russia. So a high-level line of communication between Moscow and Riyadh works towards dissipating any misunderstandings regarding, for instance, jihadism in Tatarstan and Chechnya.

Moscow does not buy the much-spun (in the West) Iranian “aggressive behavior” in the Middle East. As a key negotiator of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Russia very well knows that Iran’s ballistic missile program is actually the key target of Trump’s imminent decertification of the Iran deal.

The S-400 success story is unequivocal. Iran bought it. Turkey bought it. Now Saudi Arabia buys it – even after splurging a fortune in US weapons during Trump’s by now infamous “sword dance” visit to Riyadh.

King Salman may have boarded the Saudi Arabian Airlines flight, but the real architect of the pivot to Russia is MBS. Oil in Saudi Arabia accounts for 87% of budget revenues, 42% of GDP, and 90% of exports. MBS is betting all his cards on the Vision 2030 program to “modernize” the Saudi economy, and he knows very well it will be impossible to pull off if oil prices are low.

http://www.atimes.com/article/house-saud-bows-house-putin/

Is India missing the plot in the Indian Ocean

Colombo handles 5.2 million TEUs, JNPT handles 4.5 million TEUs, all ports in India together handle just about 8 million TEU

Meanwhile Chinese ports occupy 7 spots in the top 10 list. These 7 together handle 131 million TEUs. The Colombo International Container Terminal (CICT)—a joint venture between China’ Merchant Holding International and the Sri Lanka Port Authority, in 85:15 proportion of equity sharing—has been a remarkable success

http://www.worldshipping.org/about-the-industry/global-trade/top-50-world-container-ports

The Colombo International Container Terminal (CICT)—a joint venture between China’ Merchant Holding International and the Sri Lanka Port Authority, in 85:15 proportion of equity sharing—has been a remarkable success. On efficiency parameters, the port is now among the top 50 ports in the world, and is the leading port in the South Asia region. The key success of the port has been to develop as a major trans-shipment hub on the Indian Ocean. By being a deep-water terminal and with the capacity of handling the largest containers, the port has become a berthing favourite for ultra-large and very-large container carriers, which account for significant parts of container volumes in the port. The new port city will build on the success of the Colombo port. By creating new capacities, including on-land maritime real estate like a marina and new housing, the port city can well make Sri Lanka one of the busiest hubs on the Indian Ocean. The prospects have significant implications for the MSRI and India.

http://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/column-colombo-port-china-and-india/238296/

TOP 50 WORLD CONTAINER PORTS

Rank	Port	Volume 2015 (Million TEU)	Volume 2014 (Million TEU)	Volume 2013 (Million TEU)	Volume 2012 (Million TEU)	Volume 2011 (Million TEU)	Website
1	Shanghai, China	36.54	35.29	33.62	32.53	31.74	www.portshanghai.com.cn
2	SIngapore	30.92	33.87	32.6	31.65	29.94	www.singaporepsa.com
3	Shenzhen, China	24.20	24.03	23.28	22.94	22.57	www.szport.net
4	Ningbo-Zhoushan, China	20.63	19.45	17.33	16.83	14.72	www.mardep.gov.hk
5	Hong Kong, S.A.R., China	20.07	22.23	22.35	23.12	24.38	www.mardep.gov.hk
6	Busan, South Korea	19.45	18.65	17.69	17.04	16.18	www.busanpa.com
7	Qingdao, China	17.47	16.62	15.52	14.50	13.02	www.qdport.com
8	Guangzhou Harbor, China	17.22	16.16	15.31	14.74	14.42	www.gzport.com
9	Jebel Ali, Dubai, United Arab Emirates	15.60	15.25	13.64	13.30	13.00	www.dpworld.ae
10	Tianjin, China	14.11	14.05	13.01	12.30	11.59	www.ptacn.com
11	Rotterdam, Netherlands	12.23	12.30	11.62	11.87	11.88	www.portofrotterdam.com
12	Port Klang, Malaysia	11.89	10.95	10.35	10.00	9.60	www.pka.gov.my
13	Kaohsiung, Taiwan, China	10.26	10.59	9.94	9.78	9.64	www.khb.gov.tw
14	Antwerp, Belgium	9.65	8.98	8.59	8.64	8.66	www.portofantwerp.com
15	Dalian, China	9.45	10.13	10.86	8.92	6.40	www.dlport.cn
16	Xiamen, China	9.18	8.57	8.01	7.20	6.47	www.portxiamen.gov.cn
17	Tanjung Pelepas, Malaysia	9.10	8.50	7.63	7.70	7.50	www.ptp.com.my
18	Hamburg, Germany	8.82	9.73	9.30	8.89	9.01	https://www.hafen-hamburg.de/
19	Los Angeles, U.S.A.	8.16	8.33	7.87	8.08	7.94	www.portoflosangeles.org
20*	Keihin Ports, Japan	7.52	7.85	7.81	7.85	7.64	www.city.yokohama.lg.jp/en
21	Long Beach, U.S.A.	7.19	6.82	6.73	6.05	6.06	www.polb.com
22	Laem Chabang, Thailand	6.82	6.58	6.04	5.93	5.73	www.laemchabangport.com
23	New York-New Jersey, U.S.A.	6.37	5.77	5.47	5.53	5.50	www.panynj.gov
24	Yingkou, China	5.92	5.77	5.30	4.85	4.03	www.ykport.com.cn
25	Bremen/Bremerhaven, Germany	5.48	5.78	5.84	6.13	5.92	www.bremen-ports.de
26	Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam	5.31	6.39	5.96	5.19	4.53	www.vpa.org.vn
27	Tanjung Priok, Jakarta, Indonesia	5.20	5.77	5.47	5.53	5.50	www.priokport.co.id www.indonesiaport.co.id
28	Colombo, Sri Lanka	5.19	4.91	4.31	4.26	4.26	www.slpa.lk
29	Suzhou, China	5.10	4.45	5.31	--	--	suzhou.jiangsu.net/transportation/waterway/port
30	Lianyungun, China	5.01	5.01	5.49	5.02	4.85	www.lyg.gov.cn
31**	Hanshin Ports, Japan	4.93	5.32	5.32	5.00	4.80	www.hanshinport.co.jp/en
32	Valencia, Spain	4.62	4.44	4.33	4.47	4.33	www.valenciaport.com
33	Algerciras Bay, Spain	4.52	4.56	4.50	4.11	3.60	www.apba.es
34	Jawaharlal Nehru, India	4.49	4.45	4.12	4.26	4.32	www.jnport.gov.in
35	Manila, Philippines	4.23	3.65	3.77	3.71	3.46	www.ppa.com.ph
36	Jeddah, Suadi Arabia	4.19	4.20	4.56	4.74	4.01	www.ports.gov.sa
37	Felixstowe, U.K.	4.00	4.00	3.74	3.95	3.74	www.portoffelixstowe.co.uk/
38	Haiphong, Vietnam	3.87	3.45	3.02	.96	1.01	www.vpa.org.vn
39	Santos, Brazil	3.78	3.68	3.45	3.17	2.99	http://www.portodesantos.com.br/
40	Georgia Ports,  U.S.A.	3.74	3.35	3.03	2.97	2.94	www.gaports.com
41	Port Said East, Egypt	3.60	3.40	3.12	2.86	3.20	www.scctportsaid.com
42	Colon, Panama	3.58	3.29	3.36	3.52	3.37	www.amp.gob.pa
43***	Seattle-Tacoma NW Seaport Alliance, U.S.A.	3.53	3.43	3.46	3.51	3.59	https://www.nwseaportalliance.com/#/maps/overview www.portseattle.org   www.porttacoma.org
44	Sharjah, United Arab Emirates	3.40	4.12	4.12	400	3.23	www.sharjahports.ae
45	Piraeus, Greece	3.37	3.59	3.16	--	--	www.pct.com.gr   www.olp.gr/en
46	Balboa, Panama	3.29	3.47	3.19	3.30	3.23	www.ppc.com.pa/balboa.php
47	Tanjung Perak, Surabaya, Indonesia	3.12	3.13	3.02	2.89	2.64	www.perakport.co.id
48	Ambarli, Turkey	3.09	3.38	3.38	3.10	2.69	www.atlasliman.com
49	Marsaxlokk, Malta	3.06	2.90	2.75	2.54	2.36	www.maltafreeport.com.mt
50	Vancouver, Canada	3.05	2.91	2.83	2.72		www.portvancouver.com

**Keihin Ports is Japan's superport hub on the Tokyo Bay and includes Yokohama, Kawasaki, and Tokyo.                                                                            

**Hanshin Ports is Japan's superport hub on the Osaka Bay and includes Kobe, Lsaka, Sakai-Semboku and Amafasaki-Nishinomiya-Ashiya.

***In October of 2014 the Port of Tacoma and Port of Seattle announced an agreement to opperate jointly.                   
Note: Represents total port throughput, included loaded and empty TEU.
Source data: The Journal of Commerce annual top 50 World Container Ports, Lloyd's List annual Top 100 Ports, AAPA World Port Rankings, Drewry World Container Traffic Port Handling and individual port websites.

Source: worldshipping.org