Friday, December 29, 2006

The Great Indian Demographic Shift

The NCAER defines the Middle class as the one with household income between Rs 200,000 and Rs 1000,000. In 2001-02, the middle class consisted of 10.7 million households (5.4% of the total). The middle class owned, among other things, 7 million motor cycles, 7.3 million CTV, 6.2 million Refrigerators, 1.5 million AC and 3.2 million cars.

The total number households with income over Rs 200,000, was 11.5 million (6.2%). This is the rich class added to the middle class, a combined class of significant interest to marketers of consumption items.

Further, the analysis of NCAER indicates that the population having household income of over Rs 200,000 has increased and will continue to increase as follows

  • 4.8 million HH, 2.9% of the population in ’95-96
  • 11.55 million HH, 6.13% of the population in’01-02
  • 18.12 million HH, 8.9% of the population in ’05-06
  • 32.25 million HH, 14.5% of the population in ’09-10

The average HH is equivalent to 4.8 people.

Thus, in 4 years leading up to the current year the population of this class has increased by 57% and now consists of about 87 million people. This number is set to increase by another 78% during the next 4 years to reach 155 million.

This is a huge demographic shift by any standards, almost doubling in 5 years.

Further, the next class defined by NCAER (Rs 90,000 to 200,000 pa HH income), is also showing a similar trend:

  • 29 million HH in ’95-96
  • 41 million HH in’01-02
  • 53 million HH in ’05-06
  • 75 million HH in’09-10

It is this segment which moves on to the higher income segment. The figures indicate that the upper segment will keep increasing at these high rates and the great demographic shift will continue for quite some time.

No comments: